You might want to look at this Sunday Times article @ChrChristensen @chrischirp .
TENGELL, Sweden’s COVID lead, with GUPTA and HENEGHAN, U.K. herd immunity fans, met secretly with Boris Johnson & Rishi Sunak (U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer) at Sunak’s request) on 20th Sept.
20th Sept is highly material as it was the day before our SAGE committee recommended an immediate two week circuit break to prevent cases & hospitalisations spiralling.
Johnson decided not to impose a circuit break
Cases and hospitalisations spiralled.
Now if Herd Immunity was not TENGELL’s STRATEGY why would he go to a meeting with Great Barrington Herd Immunity advocates, Gupta and Heneghan? Look! Gupta was asserting in September we’d “achieve” herd immunity in 3-6 months
So Just before Xmas we’ll have herd immunity!
I’ve got to say that if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it probably IS a duck.
So Heneghan, Gupta and Tengell (thanks Sweden) DRIVEN BY SUNAK, our Chancellor advocated a policy which, despite a late lockdown in November, has led to about another 22,000 deaths U.K.
An anonymous hospital doctor (who have been banned from speaking publicly) says that, in ICU units that were again overwhelmed, patients who needed ICU support did not get it.
This clearly is not true for ALL ICU units. Some were within capacity. Others were not.
We moved out if semi lockdown into Tier restrictions on 3rd December when our cases were still above the levels when SAGE recommended a circuit break on 21st September.
Again how to do this was not as recommended by SAGE.
In the 9 days since semi-lockdown ended & replaced by Tier restrictions our cases have increased by nearly 25%, as are hospital admissions ( which had gone down). Deaths are currently averaging 3k pw-but there’s quite a reporting lag. Hundreds of deaths added over 2-3 weeks
WHY KEEP THE MEETING AND CONTENTS SECRET?
Because Johnson and Sunak and likely Tengell at least wanted plausible deniability that their deliberate plan was and is herd immunity.
STRIKING that our Health Secretary or CMO or CSO appears not to have been invited
It seems that Prof John Edmond was given a slot at the end to put forward SAGE’s views but we know not what he actually said.
Again, no doubt, subject to confidentiality terms – but he co-authored the SAGE paper clearly advocating the 2 week circuit break.
Happily, someone seems to have archived the article.
It seems that SUNAK is unable to grasp that a short early circuit break followed by a carefully calibrated & measured exit strategy to identify the COVID drivers is better for the economy than longer ineffective semi lockdowns & hospitals being swamped, thus curtailing electives.
To calculate how many additional deaths there have been since that meeting I took the ONS Covid certified deaths from then until the latest report up to 27/11/20. (But that number likely to increase as deaths are backfilled.)
I then added the deaths BY DATE OF DEATH since then recorded on the Gov dashboard. But remember, that will be an undercount because hundreds of deaths are added up to 3 weeks after the date of death.
An additional snippet from the article which gives an insights into Johnson’s disrespect for his advisers is he refers to Whitty & Vallance as “Professors Doom and Gloom.”
It is worth noting that by October Tengell was SAYING that herd immunity as a strategy was “highly unethical”.
So why make a special trip to the U.K. with these two proponents of it? One would have thought he would have wanted no association with them.
The issue is NOT so much whether herd immunity MIGHT be “achievable” (depending on the durability of any immunity -as yet uncertain) it is AT WHAT COST outwith vaccination esp given the pretty compelling evidence that hard hit areas in March and April are getting hit again.
Gupta was clearly advocating against a short circuit break.
She seems to think it is ethical to just let the inevitable consequence and rising deaths of no lockdown happen.
The semi lockdown, though very late and half cock DID slow classes, hospitalisations and deaths
How many would there be by now without it?
Not just COVID deaths but deaths of people with other conditions unable to be treated due to overwhelming pressure from emergency COVID patients.
Prime Minister and Chancellor Too little and Too Late
H/t @jneill for the Swedish data.
And remember Sweden reports deaths by date of deaths so there is quite a lag.
I see the excellent @andrew_croxford has picked up on the article too and, as he has added some additional information debunking the notion of pre existing immunity (much loved by Gupta et al) I add it here.
I share his outrage.
Originally tweeted by Fionna O’Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 (@fascinatorfun) on 13/12/2020.
For more on the Barrington Declaration, read this article from 2 December, Byline Times. Ed